BALTIMORE — The election of Maryland’s next governor could turn on so-called pocketbook issues and a lack of confidence some Democrats say they have in the ability of candidates in their own party to address concerns related to jobs, taxes and economic development.
A poll released Tuesday by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College found that voters are keying in on pocketbook issues: economic development, taxes and job creation. The focus is very different than the typical education and crime concerns voters typically express in years with a robust economy and signals that Maryland is still behind the economic recovery curve, according to Mileah Kromer, director of the center.
“Clearly this election is all about the economy,” said Kromer.
A vast majority of the 708 Maryland residents polled between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2 — nearly 72 percent — said they believe they are in the same financial situation or worse off than they were a year ago. That percentage is flat compared to when the question was asked a year ago and it is 7 percentage points higher than it was in October 2012.
Kromer said those responses could directly affect the governor’s race.
“When you look back and you’re not better off than you were, that could have a really bad implications for Anthony Brown,” Kromer said.
Brown, the Democratic lieutenant governor, is squaring off against Republican Larry Hogan. Kromer said that while Hogan remains relatively unknown, his message as it pertains to the economy and taxes is connecting with voters.
“There is this disconnect here,” Kromer said. “He needs to get his name out but his message has gotten out even though his name hasn’t.”
Maryland’s 6.4 percent unemployment rate is higher than the national rate of 6.1 percent. Wage growth is stagnant. The 0.4 percent growth is not keeping pace with inflation. Last month, the state’s Board of Revenue Estimates wrote down individual income tax receipts by $350 million, which includes shortfalls carried over from 2014 and a write-down of expected 2015 receipts.
But poll respondents are trying to remain positive.
“When they look forward, people think it’s going to get better,” said Kromer.
For the second year in a row, the Goucher poll found that nearly 47 percent of people said they believe their financial situation will improve. Also remaining constant over the last two years was the nearly 49 percent of people who believe things will stay the same or get worse.
And unlike social issues in the majority Democratic state, voters appear to be more divided on the question of which party is better suited to address the pocketbook issues moving forward.
Of those who responded to the poll, 43 percent expressed confidence in Democrats to deal with issues related to economic development compared to 38 percent who felt similarly toward Republicans.
The poll was nearly evenly split on taxes, with 41 percent expressing confidence in Democrats compared to 40 percent who said Republicans were better suited to address their concerns.
When it came to job creation, Democratic candidates received the biggest vote of confidence — 44 percent — compared to the 34 percent who expressed confidence in Republicans.
Consistent within all three categories were double-digit percentages of Maryland Democrats who expressed faith in Republicans on those issues. Women, a key demographic, expressed more confidence in Republicans on taxes and job creation, according to the poll.
Those numbers contrast with how respondents said they felt about the party best equipped to handle social, environmental and education issues. In each case, those who were polled said they had more confidence in Democrats by a 3 to 1 margin — a figure driven by Democratic voters who sided with their own party about 80 percent of the time.
“These are not issues,” Kromer said. “The Democrats have already won them.”
A poll released Tuesday by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College found that voters are keying in on pocketbook issues: economic development, taxes and job creation. The focus is very different than the typical education and crime concerns voters typically express in years with a robust economy and signals that Maryland is still behind the economic recovery curve, according to Mileah Kromer, director of the center.
“Clearly this election is all about the economy,” said Kromer.
A vast majority of the 708 Maryland residents polled between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2 — nearly 72 percent — said they believe they are in the same financial situation or worse off than they were a year ago. That percentage is flat compared to when the question was asked a year ago and it is 7 percentage points higher than it was in October 2012.
Kromer said those responses could directly affect the governor’s race.
“When you look back and you’re not better off than you were, that could have a really bad implications for Anthony Brown,” Kromer said.
Brown, the Democratic lieutenant governor, is squaring off against Republican Larry Hogan. Kromer said that while Hogan remains relatively unknown, his message as it pertains to the economy and taxes is connecting with voters.
“There is this disconnect here,” Kromer said. “He needs to get his name out but his message has gotten out even though his name hasn’t.”
Maryland’s 6.4 percent unemployment rate is higher than the national rate of 6.1 percent. Wage growth is stagnant. The 0.4 percent growth is not keeping pace with inflation. Last month, the state’s Board of Revenue Estimates wrote down individual income tax receipts by $350 million, which includes shortfalls carried over from 2014 and a write-down of expected 2015 receipts.
But poll respondents are trying to remain positive.
“When they look forward, people think it’s going to get better,” said Kromer.
For the second year in a row, the Goucher poll found that nearly 47 percent of people said they believe their financial situation will improve. Also remaining constant over the last two years was the nearly 49 percent of people who believe things will stay the same or get worse.
And unlike social issues in the majority Democratic state, voters appear to be more divided on the question of which party is better suited to address the pocketbook issues moving forward.
Of those who responded to the poll, 43 percent expressed confidence in Democrats to deal with issues related to economic development compared to 38 percent who felt similarly toward Republicans.
The poll was nearly evenly split on taxes, with 41 percent expressing confidence in Democrats compared to 40 percent who said Republicans were better suited to address their concerns.
When it came to job creation, Democratic candidates received the biggest vote of confidence — 44 percent — compared to the 34 percent who expressed confidence in Republicans.
Consistent within all three categories were double-digit percentages of Maryland Democrats who expressed faith in Republicans on those issues. Women, a key demographic, expressed more confidence in Republicans on taxes and job creation, according to the poll.
Those numbers contrast with how respondents said they felt about the party best equipped to handle social, environmental and education issues. In each case, those who were polled said they had more confidence in Democrats by a 3 to 1 margin — a figure driven by Democratic voters who sided with their own party about 80 percent of the time.
“These are not issues,” Kromer said. “The Democrats have already won them.”